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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.