How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.