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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|